Australia’s education sector is benefitting from China’s growing middle class – with Chinese student enrolments up 12% every year since 2002.
Higher education has accounted for the lion’s share of this growth, with enrolments up tenfold over the last 16 years.
Not surprisingly, earnings in Australia’s private education sector have risen 7% p.a. over the last decade.
In the latest edition of World Risk Developments, Efic highlights the fragilities in the Chinese economy and how this could affect Australia’s education exports.
China accounts for 30% of foreign student enrolments in Australia, up from 16% in 2002. But there is significant variation by state. NSW and Victoria have the largest absolute Chinese student population. But the reliance on Chinese students is significantly higher in South Australia, Tasmania and ACT. (See below)
The large dependence on China leaves education exports – particularly in South Australia, Tasmania and the ACT – exposed to fragilities in the Chinese economy.
In a worst-case scenario, a severe downturn in the Chinese economy could lead to a sharp decline in household incomes and stringent capital controls to curb outflows.
This could deter Chinese students from studying abroad as they opt for domestic alternatives, while capital controls could cause payment delays of education fees.