The gross value of Australian farm production is forecast to increase by 6.1 per cent, surpassing $60 billion in 2016-17, according to the latest Agricultural commodities report.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), Acting Executive Director Peter Gooday said that the latest forecast would be around 16 per cent higher than the average of $52 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms.
“Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to increase by 6.7 per cent to $47.5 billion in 2016-17, following a modest increase of 1.4 per cent in 2015-16 to $44.6 billion,” Mr Gooday said.
“The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 14.7 per cent to $31.7 billion in 2016-17.
“This is due in part to recent record high winter crop production of 52.4 million tonnes and forecast increases in the gross value of horticulture and cotton production.”
Bumper winter crop
The latest forecast follows news last week of Australia’s bumper winter crop, with total winter crop production forecast to increase by 32 per cent in 2016-17 to a record high of 52.4 million tonnes.
The agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2016-17 are wheat (up 25 per cent), wool (3 per cent), sugar (23 per cent), wine (3 per cent), barley (15 per cent), cotton (56 per cent), chickpeas (74 per cent), lamb (4 per cent), canola (33 per cent) and rock lobster (6 per cent).
The forecast increases in export earnings are expected to be partly offset by forecast falls in beef and veal (down 17 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (17 per cent) and mutton (12 per cent). Export earnings for dairy products are expected to continue unchanged.
“The gross value of livestock production is forecast to fall by 2 per cent to $28.5 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 7.7 per cent increase in 2015-16,” Mr Gooday said.
The latest edition of Agricultural commodities is available at ABARES Publications.