SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FREE NEWSLETTER
PUBLISHED |

EFIC chief economist predicts strong global growth in 2011

Author:
EFIC chief economist predicts strong global growth in 2011 article image
The Export Finance & Insurance Corporation’s chief economist Roger Donnelly has forecast continued global economic recovery in 2011. He reported that during 2010 volume of world trade returned to pre-global economic crisis levels and he expects leading emerging markets, led by China and India, will boost growth in the coming year. In an ‘end of year stocktake’ of key work risk developments in 2010 and summary of prospects for 2011 Donnelly predicted balanced a strong recovery from the collapse of international trade in 2008-2009 against escalation of eurozone debt, international currency wars and US Federal Reserve money supply measures. Two key issues underlie these negative trends, he said: debt hangovers for many countries and account imbalances between advanced and emerging countries. Risks related to sovereign debt, competitive currency market manipulation, protectionism and failure to coordinate international policy may escalate but this won’t prevent growth because emerging market economies are a majority and are growing rapidly. In Donnelly’s view, the biggest risk to global recovery is an escalation of eurozone debt, which has the potential to cause a renewed credit crunch. While sovereign default and the exit of one or more countries from the currency union are increased possibilities, he doesn’t believe them likely to occur in 2011.

Tags

Leave A Comment

Spinning icon Saving your comment, please wait...
Spinning icon Saving your comment, please wait...