The gross value of farm production is expected to rise by 3.1 percent to about $53.7 billion in 2015-16.
And while farm production is forecast to increase to its highest ever level in nominal terms, the value of farm exports is expected to ease to around $41.8 billion, compared with an estimated $42.4 billion in 2014-15.
The forecasts were released in the June issue of ABARES Agricultural Commodities, which includes ABARES' latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2015-16.
ABARES Executive Director, Karen Schneider, said the forecast increase in the gross value of farm production in 2015-16 mainly reflects an expected rise of 5.2 per cent in the gross value of livestock production to $27.2 billion in 2015-16.
“This largely reflects expected higher farmgate prices for beef, lamb, sheep and wool, which will more than offset a forecast decline of 4.1 per cent in the volume of livestock production in 2015-16,” Ms Schneider said.
“The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase in 2015–16 by 0.9 per cent to $26.5 billion in 2015-16, reflecting an expected increase in the volume of production.”
Lower livestock production
The forecast fall in farm export earnings in 2015-16 mainly reflects expected lower livestock production under the assumption of herd and flock rebuilding during the latter half of the year.
“Despite the forecast year-on-year fall, export earnings for farm commodities in 2015-16 are still expected to be around 10 per cent higher than the average of five years to 2014-15 in nominal terms,” Ms Schneider said.
“Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to continue to grow, increasing by 6.3 per cent to around $1.6 billion, following an estimated increase of 13.9 per cent to $1.5 billion in 2014-15.”
Export earnings are expected to increase in 2015-16 for coarse grains (up by 6 per cent), live sheep (6 per cent), wool (5 per cent), sugar (5 per cent), dairy (2 per cent) and lamb (2 per cent).
Export earnings are forecast to decrease for beef and veal (4 per cent), wheat (5 per cent), cotton (33 per cent), live cattle (4 per cent), and mutton (13 per cent).
The full report is available at: agriculture.gov.au/abares/publications